Looking forward to 2021, although many countries have begun to vaccinate against new coronary pneumonia, under the new threats such as vaccine coverage and virus variants, it is expected that the new coronary pneumonia epidemic will remain relatively active in the next six months, which will increase the demand for IT products. Still exist.
Therefore, TrendForce Industry Research Institute, a subsidiary of TrendForce, estimates that the total shipments of desktop monitors and notebook computers in 2021 will be 152 million units and 217 million units, respectively, with an annual growth rate of 1.3% and 8.1% respectively. The outlook is optimistic.
Judging from the panel factory’s own plan for 2021, IT panels are still actively rushing into the block by various manufacturers. Taking notebook computer panels as an example, various panel manufacturers plan to ship a total of 257 million pieces, but considering the overall demand, the shortage of semiconductor materials such as driver ICs, and the aggressive planning of some emerging manufacturers.
Tuoma believes that the reasonable capacity of notebook computer panels should be 237 million pieces. Although the annual growth rate of only 6% is 8.4% different from the official shipment data, for panel manufacturers, the material itself is a potential cause of shipments. The scale is not as large as the expected bottleneck, so the overall supply and demand situation is generally still within a healthy and controllable range, especially in the first half of 2021 when the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is still lingering.
Desktop monitor market conditions may require more attention. Due to the booming market in 2020, the delivery of the complete machine end was insufficient, and some shipments were forced to be delayed until the first half of 2021. Coupled with the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, Topology reasonably believes that the whole desktop Display machine will be released in 2021. There is still room to grow to 152 million units, but the annual growth rate is only 1.3%.
On the other hand, in terms of panel supply, according to the panel factory’s own planning and statistics, the global desktop display panel shipments in 2021 will reach 187 million units. Considering the overall situation objectively, Topology expects that the reasonable panel shipments for desktop display panels in 2021 will be 168 million pieces, a significant gap of 11% from the official optimistic expectation.
From the data point of view, the potential oversupply pressure of desktop display panels is greater than that of the notebook computer panel market. Especially, many manufacturers have invested in IPS products one after another. Once the market reverses, it may inevitably become the item with the highest risk of oversupply.