With general expectations of a market recovery this year, “the wheels fell off in Q1”, Malcolm Penn (pictured) CEO of Future Horizons told IFS2024 yesterday.
In Q1, Future Horizons’ 3% plus forecast became a -5.7% actual market result. Q1 was down 8.4% on Q4. Opto and discretes are still deeply in recession.
The recovery in the market’s value in Q2 2023 was 
The growth rate turned positive in September 2023 then plateaued in December. “Watch out for IC ASP growth rates to crash in mid-2024,” said Penn.
The market was affected by the hangover of multiple long-term price agreements (LTA) from the post Covid market boom. Capacity utilisation rates are mostly in the 70 to 75% range.
The non-China capex cut-back started in Q2 2023. The China spend on capex has now reached 47.2% of the total world capex which is, said Penn “a serious red flag”. China’s chip production will be up 60% in the next three years and doubled in five years.
Future Horizons’ forecast for 2024 is now a rise for the market of 4.9% to $552.76 billion with a possible negative of 3.5% growth and a possible positive of 8% growth.